It Ain’t Over Until It’s Over
– Yogi Berra
Today we’re going to talk about something that maybe a little bit cryptic to some people. When I say that there are zombie markets and ain’t over till it’s over. A lot of the members are probably wondering what in the world are you talking about, what do you mean by it ain’t over till it’s over and what does that have to do with zombies?
All right, I’ll explain. One of the problems with trading and similarly with life, is that we like to believe we know or can predict what the future holds. If we knew what was going to happen, we could plan our lives, our schedules, our budgets to achieve an optimized and desired outcome.
But we don’t know. And in fact, it is not possible to know all the things that come into play, outside of your control, to affect any level of certainty.
You could mitigate that uncertainty to a degree by placing yourself in a low risk situation. Then the probabilistic outcomes are a little bit more predictable. If you put yourself into a volatile situation, then of course, the outcomes are a less predictable.That only makes sense. Now what about those situations with no information, no volatility, a virtual null. How do you predict that? You can’t.
In such a situation, anything could be possible, from benign to chaotic. In fact the potential relative to the lull might be bombastic, or to the level of a zombie apocalypse. It could be the Big Bang, from nothing, comes everything.